Vigilant Investments Advisors, LLC.

Market Insights

Jul24

Is This the Bottom--Update #4

With the market indices reaching near-term highs on the strength of continuous daily gains, I feel the need to update the discussion on the process of completing a down cycle in the stock market.

In the later stages of a down market cycle, the market will tend to overshoot on the upside, just as it tended to overshoot on the downside. The challenge is that while there is a sign of recovery, much of the data hasn’t confirmed it and market participants will experience a bull...

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Jul 8

The 17.5 Year Cycle

On the floor or the New York Stock Exchange these days you may hear traders discuss the 17.6 year cycle.  The idea has reference to an old adage that the market experiences short-term cycles as well as long-term secular cycles.

If, for example, in September 1929, with the Dow around 350, you look backward 17.6 years, the market experienced incredible prosperity.  On the other hand, if you look from September 1929 forward 17.6 years, the markets and economies of the world...

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